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Todd Pletcher

Over the past 20 years, post positions 5 and 16 have produced four winners each. The first Kentucky Derby was the following year, when Aristides outran 15 horses in front of a crowd of 10,000. The Twin Spires wouldn't be constructed for a dozen years. Monomoy Girl is the 2-1 favorite. One of the colts in the race didn't even have a name - they just referred to him as "the Malloy colt".

Prior to the big Derby race, the Kentucky Oaks race will be held. History says shy away from posts one and two. There aren't very many bars in San Antonio that typically carry the drink on their menu (maybe the unique glasses are just too much?), but the cocktail makes a few appearances for Derby Saturday. "If (Justify) had had a race at 2, it wouldn't have made any difference at all to me". What racehorses did was race.

"When I got him over to Santa Anita, the first time I worked him there I knew he was something really special", Baffert said. With a repeat of that behavior, he'll encounter some serious traffic problems in the Derby with its 20-horse field.

I was happy to cash tickets on him as a 2-year-old at double-digit odds in both the Sanford and Champagne, but his 3-year-old form leaves a lot to be desired, and the rail draw means he's got to be either first or last out of the gate. He doesn't want to hear about any curses. I count at least five horses - Justify, Mendelssohn, Magnum Moon, Audible and Good Magic - who might have been favored in other years with lesser competition. I think Bolt d'Oro will run third. "So we'll just keep our fingers crossed until Saturday afternoon and hope for the best for everybody". There is nothing more frustrating than handicapping the race near perfectly but coming home with an empty wallet. "In a way, you try to treat this race like any other big race and that's what we're doing and he's giving us all of the right signs".

Trainer William Spawr's pupil has won by a combined 10 1/4 lengths during its surge and will enter its next challenge with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, 52, making his fourth straight start aboard the horse.

Others aren't so sure.

"Those two minutes and a second or so of derby running carry more emotional thrills, per second, than anything sport can show".

"Bodemeister nearly got away with it but the pace got to him a little bit", said Baffert of his 2012 Derby horse who finished second after being unraced at 2.

The Derby has essentially the same set of characters every year, which makes it fun and easy to handicap the victor. Breeding formulas. For a while, all we talked about was bloodlines and "dosage". The idea that he won't win the Derby because he didn't race as a 2-year-old is ridiculous.

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Barbaro was put down by his owners eight months later, unable to overcome the complications he had suffered after the accident.

Dale Romans said that conventional wisdom is falling by the wayside pretty often these days when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Romans said. "But if Curlin couldn't do it, it's going to be hard for anybody to do it".

"If you believe in statistics you believe in it", he said. If you do it by 5 p.m., I might feature one of your comments in the column that appears in Friday's newspaper.

Like Justify, Bodemeister didn't race as a 2-year-old. "I think any horse that's had a couple of races early on, then had a little time to develop and grow, they really benefit from it".

Mendelssohn has raced mostly on grass.

There's the yearly Todd Squad (say what you will, but Todd Pletcher is a mutant).

The Kentucky Derby has been covered by some of America's most famous writers. Ultimately, at some point, talent will prevail.

Those three colts also have top trainers: Todd Pletcher with Audible and Magnum Moon, and Bob Baffert with Justify. "There's only one way to find out".

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